⚡️Why is the difference between 1.5° and 2°C global average temperature rise important?
The global temperature has already increased by approximately 1.0°C and is likely to reach 1.5°C between 2030 and 2052 if it continues to increase at the current rate.
There is a big a difference between 1.5°C and 2°C global warming:
🔴 Sea level rise, ice-free Arctic summer and Climate refugees
2°C would mean 10 centimetres more in sea-level rise compared to 1.5°C and an additional 10 million people that lose their home.
🔴 Ocean temperature & acidity
With a rise of 1.5 degrees 70-90 percent of corals in the sea would die due to the warming and acidification — practically all at 2°C.
🔴 Health and Climate-related risks
“[…] limiting global warming to 1.5°C, compared with 2°C, could reduce the number of people both exposed to climate-related risks and susceptible to poverty by up to several hundred million by 2050.”
“Any increase in global warming is projected to affect human health, with primarily negative consequences. Lower risks are projected at 1.5°C than at 2°C for heat-related morbidity and mortality and for ozone-related mortality if emissions needed for ozone formation remain high” (IPCC SR1.5, p.9)
🔴 According to climate projections, we are heading towards a warming of 3 to 4 degrees.
As the IPCC-Report states: “Global warming is likely to reach 1.5°C between 2030 and 2052 if it continues to increase at the current rate.” (IPCC Special Report 2018)
The IPCC Special Report 2018 determines how much our CO2-emissions have to decrease in order to realise the targets of the Paris Agreement and the temperatures to stay under 1.5°C.
Between 2010 and 2030 the global CO2-emissions would have to be reduced by 45%. Then, emissions must be cut down by half every additional decade in order to end up at practically zero by 2050.
Sources:
IPCC, Special Report “Global Warming of 1.5°C”, 2018
Atlas der Globalisierung “Welt in Bewegung”, Le Monde diplomatique (german)
Check out the Climate Action Tracker’s 2100 Warming Projections to see if your country complies with global warming targets.
Visit UN Environment to see why we must reduce emissions by 7.6% every year between 2020 and 2030.